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emerging markets poised for potential gains amid us election and economic shifts

Emerging markets (EM) may see potential upside as US exceptionalism wanes, with UBS forecasting a decline in US nominal GDP growth below 4% next year. This shift could lower the bar for EM, despite its own deceleration, as net portfolio flows into EM face a 20-year low. The upcoming US presidential election could further benefit EM, particularly under a divided government scenario with no new tariffs, potentially leading to a projected MSCI EM index of 1255 by the end of 2025, translating to around 10% total returns. However, challenges remain, including weak global trade, negligible EM risk premia, and potential tariff risks from China.
09:00 15.10.2024

Chinese equities face volatility amid uncertainty over fiscal stimulus measures

Chinese equities are expected to remain volatile as investors react to the government's recent fiscal stimulus package, which has left many disappointed due to a lack of specific details on implementation. Analysts warn that if the measures fail to meet expectations, the market could face further declines. Despite initial optimism that drove indices to two-year highs, concerns over sluggish economic growth and deflation persist, with the government struggling to meet its GDP target for 2024.
06:48 15.10.2024

DAX poised for record high amid ECB meeting and US earnings season

The DAX is nearing record highs as the ECB meeting and US earnings season approach. Key events include the ZEW index release, with expectations of an increase, and potential ECB rate cuts. US retail sales and unemployment claims will also be closely monitored, alongside significant data from China and major US bank earnings reports.
14:18 14.10.2024

global economic outlook shifts as major economies adopt pro-growth strategies

UBS Asset Management maintains an overweight stance on Gilts and JPY, citing attractive valuations and the need for aggressive BoJ revaluation. In contrast, it is underweight on Japanese Government Bonds and Switzerland due to rising wages and expensive valuations, respectively. Emerging markets, particularly BRL and ZAR, are favored for their carry potential, while U.S. equities are seen as overvalued despite strong earnings.
09:00 14.10.2024

China's generative AI user base surpasses 600 million driving industrial transformation

China's generative AI models have surpassed 600 million registered users, marking a significant milestone in the country's AI industry, which boasts over 4,500 companies and 200 major models. This rapid growth is driven by technological innovation and increasing demand across sectors like manufacturing, finance, and healthcare, positioning China as a leader in both open-source and closed AI models globally. Chinese firms are also expanding internationally, leveraging vast training data to enhance AI applications and contribute to global governance in the field.

market awaits key economic data and bank earnings reports today

Michigan's Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading is expected to rise to 70.9 in October, while key speeches from Fed officials are anticipated. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.092%. European markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down slightly, as investors await U.S. bank earnings and updates on China's fiscal stimulus. The U.K. economy showed growth in August, while Germany's inflation eased to 1.6%. Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising on investor adjustments ahead of a holiday, while China's Shanghai Composite fell amid caution over potential stimulus measures. U.S. futures are down as the market awaits crucial PPI data and bank earnings.
11:38 11.10.2024

US markets hit record highs as Fed signals rate cuts ahead

US stock markets hit record highs following the Federal Reserve's support for a significant interest rate cut, while optimism in Australia surged due to China's fiscal policy measures. Key economic indicators showed mixed results, with rising jobless claims and fluctuating inflation rates. Upcoming data releases include employment figures in Australia and retail sales in the US.
05:11 11.10.2024

quantedge leads recovery in hedge funds as markets react to rate cuts

Quantedge Global Fund led a rebound in commodity trading advisors and trend-following hedge funds in September, gaining over 8% and reaching a 29.36% year-to-date increase. Other notable performers included Mulvaney Global Markets Fund, up 3.1%, and DUNN World Monetary & Agriculture Program, which rose 1.03%. However, the Tulip Trend Fund faced a setback, dropping 2.3% for the month.

ASX 200 rises amid positive China announcements and stable energy prices

The ASX 200 rose 34 points (0.42%) to 8222 by 2:00 PM AEST, buoyed by positive sentiment from China’s recent fiscal policy announcements and a new 500 billion yuan swap facility. Key sectors, including mining and energy, saw gains, while the index approached resistance levels, indicating potential volatility ahead.
07:24 10.10.2024
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